BetIt said:
Borat was only in 837 theatres last week, now expanding to around 2500 this week. Who's to know where Harsh's 875 theatres are located. Just raw numbers suggest alot of its theatres will overlap Borat's new theatres as well.
I just don't know who's going to go out and see this on opening weekend.
3,428 is the number actually PT... but yes I see most of you have Borat as a potential problem. Be that as it may yet I really feel that this movie will have a different suitor than those for Borat. Its a crime drama/action movie that aims at minorities and adrenaline junkies. Eva and Christian are good faces/actors that give this movie enough eye candy for those into that sort of stuff. Then add to that possible good reviews I think this movie does 4 million easily.
But I like the fact that we are breaking this down objectively. I want screen counts? projections? early reviews?
Lets all put our heads together and make some money...
I put 200 dollars when it was at +168 dont forget so i could easily hedge my play (already the under is at -139)
Its now down to +126 last time I checked on Pinny. So the question you need to ask yourself grab it now and hope it continues at the current path or wait till the last second and determine then.
Thank you guys
But I like the fact that we are breaking this down objectively. I want screen counts? projections? early reviews?
Lets all put our heads together and make some money...
I put 200 dollars when it was at +168 dont forget so i could easily hedge my play (already the under is at -139)
Its now down to +126 last time I checked on Pinny. So the question you need to ask yourself grab it now and hope it continues at the current path or wait till the last second and determine then.
Thank you guys
i think his analysis is way off base...i dont consider bale a big name actor...i wouldnt go see this just bc i liked america psycho...who cares about the other bitch...
screen count is gonna be low...1 per theatre bc of the amount of new releases/ borat's expansion and last weeks releases still playing...at that its gonna be playing in the smallest room... theatre count is low...under 900...tracking had it at 1.5 and 4million respectively...the promotion hasnt been great at all IMO...i didnt bet it and doubt i will...if someone had a gun to my head id go low though....too much competition this weekend...
5 new releases + borat expansion...plus last weeks 2...plus saw3 still in the mix...this is borats week to shine once again IMO...as far as borat being sold out at theatres...it will have no effect on THIS movie bc of its Rrating...if anything it will have an effect on the new PG13 movies as people who cannot get in to see borat will buy tickets to STF AGY etc and sneek into Borat thus bumping their grosses a little.... it was evident last week in certain movies friday/saturday drops being lower than expected...
like i said i think its borats too dominate...with many many people going back for 2nd and 3rd viewings...that plus a crowded marketplace spells UNDERS imo...i made 3 plays as soon as the lines were posted and i got 3 good lines...i played OVER Babel 9m -108 the second it hit the board...my thinking on this OVER it being Brad Pitt (a real draw) ...a movie playing to an older women demo who really hasnt had much to see lately and certainly isnt all that interested in Borat...Saw..SC3...FA kid flick type movies...and its done very well in limited theatres so far...reviews havent been bad...yahoo has B across the board...
i played Under 10M Good Year -140something...and Under 7million The Return -160something
Usual Megaplex:
3 BORAT (1 extra screen for this weekend)
2 STRANGER THAN FICTION
1 A GOOD YEAR
1 BABEL
1 HARSH TIMES
1 NIGHT OF THE LIVING DEAD 3D
Borat Largest Screen
Borat 2nd largest Screen
Babel
Stranger than Fiction
A Good Year
Flushed Away
Santa Clause 3
screen count is gonna be low...1 per theatre bc of the amount of new releases/ borat's expansion and last weeks releases still playing...at that its gonna be playing in the smallest room... theatre count is low...under 900...tracking had it at 1.5 and 4million respectively...the promotion hasnt been great at all IMO...i didnt bet it and doubt i will...if someone had a gun to my head id go low though....too much competition this weekend...
5 new releases + borat expansion...plus last weeks 2...plus saw3 still in the mix...this is borats week to shine once again IMO...as far as borat being sold out at theatres...it will have no effect on THIS movie bc of its Rrating...if anything it will have an effect on the new PG13 movies as people who cannot get in to see borat will buy tickets to STF AGY etc and sneek into Borat thus bumping their grosses a little.... it was evident last week in certain movies friday/saturday drops being lower than expected...
like i said i think its borats too dominate...with many many people going back for 2nd and 3rd viewings...that plus a crowded marketplace spells UNDERS imo...i made 3 plays as soon as the lines were posted and i got 3 good lines...i played OVER Babel 9m -108 the second it hit the board...my thinking on this OVER it being Brad Pitt (a real draw) ...a movie playing to an older women demo who really hasnt had much to see lately and certainly isnt all that interested in Borat...Saw..SC3...FA kid flick type movies...and its done very well in limited theatres so far...reviews havent been bad...yahoo has B across the board...
i played Under 10M Good Year -140something...and Under 7million The Return -160something
Usual Megaplex:
3 BORAT (1 extra screen for this weekend)
2 STRANGER THAN FICTION
1 A GOOD YEAR
1 BABEL
1 HARSH TIMES
1 NIGHT OF THE LIVING DEAD 3D
Borat Largest Screen
Borat 2nd largest Screen
Babel
Stranger than Fiction
A Good Year
Flushed Away
Santa Clause 3
HuskerFan1 said:
All that being said Husker...I grabbed the line when it was at +168. Why does that matter to me well maybe because the line currently is -101 yes I repeat the line is:
-101
In 24 hours its gone from Over 3 Million +168 to -101
Why do you think that is?
$200 doesnt qualify for me as a big play not when Im placing heavy bets on the weekends. I dont advise anyone to play this movie anymore. The value has gone done significantly so if anything play small. I thank you nevertheless Husker for your insight as usual. I concur that the stars are not Grade A material yet they at least have names which people say oh ok their in that. American Psycho and Batman Return werent all that bad. Babel was a 5 unit play.
We agree on everything except this movie. But you have to say that I jumped on a great line
hope you bought it back...bombs away..i had a feeling that movie would bomb i wish i had played it small...
unfortunately there was money to be made on these this week...i went light bc i play it close to the vest when the real info is unavailable but i hit the nail on the head in my post....too much competition...spells UNDERS...its gonna be unders ATB...pinny got crushed again this week...
im not bitching...did ok...managed to save a loser in babel when i bought it back and juiced out...same with borat...and hit the return and a good year but they were peanut bets...so wasnt a big week but it wasnt a losing weel either so....
unfortunately there was money to be made on these this week...i went light bc i play it close to the vest when the real info is unavailable but i hit the nail on the head in my post....too much competition...spells UNDERS...its gonna be unders ATB...pinny got crushed again this week...
im not bitching...did ok...managed to save a loser in babel when i bought it back and juiced out...same with borat...and hit the return and a good year but they were peanut bets...so wasnt a big week but it wasnt a losing weel either so....
